Q&N: Ohio 2004 vote analysis

Ohio 2004 vote analysis:
background data for
What Went Wrong in Ohio
The Conyers Report on the 2004 Presidential Election

The reported anomaly is certainly striking and unusual; normally, even a strong voter antipathy toward a Presidential candidate would be overwhelmed by the number of voters who skip the minor races. The following is an attempt at analysis.

County results are listed by vote count, percentage, and percentage ranking for Kerry and Conally. Percentage and percentage rank are also listed for the combined vote for Presidential candidates Badnarik and Peroutka, for reasons explained below. The Conally vote surplus or deficit, as compared to Kerry, is computed; that figure, as a percentage of the Kerry vote, determines the order in which counties appear. Ballots with no vote in the Presidential race are also considered, and their rate of occurrence ranked.

Several explanations are possible:

The Conally surplus votes might have been the result of the same punch-card scrambling of a portion of the vote seen elsewhere in Ohio. In that case, it would correlate with the unusually high votes for minor Presidential candidates Michael Badnarik (Libertarian Party) and Michael Anthony Peroutka (Constitution Party).* The table shows no such correlation.
They might be evidence of manipulation, which cannot be confirmed because the Secretary of State (an Ohio Bush campaign co-chair) neglected to investigate. The highest Conally percentage surplus appears in Mercer County, noteworthy for another uninvestigated anomaly. However, in most cases, there were not enough ballots without Presidential votes to account for the anomaly, and the counties where Conally outperformed Kerry do not rank, as a group, particularly high in such ballots.
They might be symptomatic of a strong regional voter antipathy to Kerry which did not transfer to Conally, who, although a Democrat, was on a nonpartisan judicial ballot. All the counties where the Conally vote exceeded Kerry’s fall into two contiguous blocs in southwestern Ohio, separated from each other only by Preble and Montgomery counties, which include the Dayton urban area.

The source data comes from the Ohio Secretary of State’s website, and this analysis was obtained by a single program run against the original captured data.

* Write-in candidates (notably including David Keith Cobb, the Green Party candidate) are not a factor in the punch-card scrambling, which only involves those on the ballot.

Analysis of the Kerry/Conally vote anomaly Ohio 2004 — 88 counties
County	Kerry	Conally	Conally surplus	Minor candidates	Presidential non-votes
votes	%	rank	votes	%	rank	votes	%	%	rank	non-votes	%	rank
Mercer	5,118	24.50	86	6,919	41.01	55	1,801	35.19	0.574	21	443	0.021	29
Auglaize	5,903	25.63	85	7,545	39.01	66	1,642	27.82	0.491	40	263	0.011	76
Shelby	6,535	28.59	82	8,043	44.56	28	1,508	23.08	0.508	37	432	0.019	43
Clermont	25,887	29.06	81	30,068	40.82	58	4,181	16.15	0.267	86	733	0.008	86
Darke	7,846	29.82	77	9,021	41.41	51	1,175	14.98	0.612	18	709	0.026	12
Van Wert	4,095	27.62	83	4,587	37.42	72	492	12.01	0.364	76	698	0.045	2
Putnam	4,392	23.30	88	4,846	34.02	85	454	10.34	0.456	56	320	0.017	52
Butler	56,243	33.71	71	61,559	47.37	20	5,316	9.45	0.418	66	2,165	0.013	68
Warren	26,044	27.58	84	28,470	38.77	69	2,426	9.32	0.357	77	1,090	0.011	74
Brown	7,140	35.89	61	7,498	46.69	23	358	5.01	0.528	34	389	0.019	38
Highland	6,194	33.52	74	6,298	42.20	44	104	1.68	0.411	67	383	0.020	32
Miami	17,606	34.01	69	17,770	41.58	50	164	0.93	0.307	84	344	0.007	88
Paulding	3,610	36.54	57	3,592	45.59	27	-18	-0.50	0.638	16	206	0.020	31
Union	6,665	29.45	78	6,625	36.86	77	-40	-0.60	0.424	64	280	0.012	71
Logan	6,825	31.90	76	6,773	38.91	67	-52	-0.76	0.477	52	317	0.015	59
Clinton	5,417	29.42	79	5,309	36.30	79	-108	-1.99	0.315	83	260	0.014	61
Crawford	7,773	35.65	63	7,557	41.32	52	-216	-2.78	0.656	14	488	0.022	22
Adams	4,281	35.67	62	4,099	44.56	29	-182	-4.25	0.550	28	373	0.030	7
Allen	16,470	33.44	75	15,565	36.53	78	-905	-5.49	0.402	70	673	0.013	63
Williams	6,481	34.77	66	6,106	40.73	59	-375	-5.79	0.622	17	352	0.019	44
Defiance	6,975	37.67	52	6,501	42.55	40	-474	-6.80	0.778	5	337	0.018	46
Hardin	4,891	36.52	58	4,554	40.88	56	-337	-6.89	0.448	60	179	0.013	66
Hancock	10,352	29.06	80	9,595	34.00	86	-757	-7.31	0.393	73	307	0.009	84
Preble	7,274	34.43	67	6,741	40.15	60	-533	-7.33	0.563	23	432	0.020	33
Morrow	5,775	35.37	65	5,281	40.03	61	-494	-8.55	0.484	44	366	0.022	21
Champaign	6,968	37.11	55	6,221	41.86	45	-747	-10.72	0.479	51	305	0.016	57
Greene	30,531	38.51	48	27,152	43.48	36	-3,379	-11.07	0.453	58	1,320	0.016	54
Gallia	5,366	38.35	49	4,754	44.11	30	-612	-11.41	0.364	75	402	0.028	10
Madison	6,203	35.65	64	5,481	40.88	57	-722	-11.64	0.448	59	386	0.022	23
Holmes	2,697	24.04	87	2,350	29.27	88	-347	-12.87	0.481	47	569	0.048	1
Ashland	8,576	34.33	68	7,438	35.76	80	-1,138	-13.27	0.769	6	760	0.030	8
Meigs	4,438	41.20	41	3,805	48.30	15	-633	-14.26	0.566	22	266	0.024	15
Henry	5,111	33.84	70	4,346	34.28	84	-765	-14.97	0.609	19	300	0.019	36
Pickaway	8,579	37.54	53	7,269	41.74	46	-1,310	-15.27	0.490	41	227	0.010	78
Fayette	4,334	36.86	56	3,658	38.74	70	-676	-15.60	0.400	71	197	0.016	53
Delaware	27,048	33.62	72	22,824	37.40	73	-4,224	-15.62	0.327	82	719	0.009	83
Columbiana	23,429	47.36	23	19,747	47.54	19	-3,682	-15.72	0.556	26	892	0.018	47
Hamilton	199,679	47.09	24	166,545	48.95	12	-33,134	-16.59	0.387	74	9,038	0.021	27
Muskingum	16,421	42.25	38	13,641	42.78	38	-2,780	-16.93	0.489	42	700	0.018	48
Lawrence	12,120	43.74	32	10,049	48.32	14	-2,071	-17.09	0.487	43	708	0.025	13
Licking	30,053	37.84	51	24,903	39.95	62	-5,150	-17.14	0.439	62	1,119	0.014	62
Geauga	19,850	39.35	47	16,334	42.26	42	-3,516	-17.71	0.410	68	617	0.012	72
Richland	24,638	39.84	45	20,271	41.04	54	-4,367	-17.72	0.534	32	1,313	0.021	28
Marion	11,930	40.78	42	9,776	39.27	65	-2,154	-18.06	0.537	31	398	0.013	64
Jackson	5,700	39.77	46	4,637	42.24	43	-1,063	-18.65	0.342	80	398	0.027	11
Fulton	8,224	37.46	54	6,659	38.80	68	-1,565	-19.03	0.405	69	278	0.013	70
Belmont	17,576	52.75	13	14,169	51.81	4	-3,407	-19.38	0.462	55	773	0.023	18
Wood	29,401	46.41	27	23,675	46.36	25	-5,726	-19.48	0.553	27	757	0.012	73
Vinton	2,651	44.72	28	2,132	48.18	17	-519	-19.58	0.472	53	230	0.037	4
Tuscarawas	18,853	43.94	31	15,089	42.45	41	-3,764	-19.96	0.522	35	854	0.020	35
Morgan	2,875	42.89	35	2,300	43.82	33	-575	-20.00	1.044	2	198	0.029	9
Fairfield	24,783	36.51	59	19,769	37.13	75	-5,014	-20.23	0.561	24	884	0.013	67
Jefferson	19,024	52.30	14	15,147	49.34	10	-3,877	-20.38	0.445	61	804	0.022	24
Wyandot	3,708	33.58	73	2,952	32.31	87	-756	-20.39	0.733	7	214	0.019	39
Harrison	3,780	46.61	26	2,999	43.98	32	-781	-20.66	0.678	10	203	0.024	14
Knox	9,820	36.31	60	7,786	37.06	76	-2,034	-20.71	0.558	25	257	0.009	80
Noble	2,654	40.58	44	2,097	42.69	39	-557	-20.99	0.688	9	254	0.037	3
Ashtabula	24,060	52.99	12	18,985	51.00	5	-5,075	-21.09	0.674	11	1,031	0.022	20
Perry	7,257	47.78	21	5,645	46.08	26	-1,612	-22.21	0.500	38	283	0.018	45
Washington	12,538	41.49	39	9,666	41.72	47	-2,872	-22.91	0.483	45	278	0.009	81
Clark	33,535	48.74	17	25,760	46.91	21	-7,775	-23.18	0.481	48	1,317	0.019	41
Medina	36,272	42.73	36	27,747	43.69	34	-8,525	-23.50	0.483	46	1,138	0.013	65
Carroll	6,300	44.64	29	4,811	39.82	63	-1,489	-23.63	0.822	3	304	0.021	26
Pike	5,989	47.62	22	4,560	46.91	22	-1,429	-23.86	0.533	33	397	0.031	6
Coshocton	7,378	42.64	37	5,614	39.73	64	-1,764	-23.91	0.480	49	333	0.019	40
Guernsey	7,768	43.54	34	5,907	41.20	53	-1,861	-23.96	0.605	20	339	0.019	42
Hocking	6,175	46.78	25	4,692	43.63	35	-1,483	-24.02	0.667	13	285	0.021	25
Seneca	10,957	40.60	43	8,297	37.22	74	-2,660	-24.28	0.545	29	616	0.022	19
Montgomery	142,997	50.60	15	108,260	48.40	13	-34,737	-24.29	0.427	63	5,062	0.018	50
Portage	40,675	53.07	11	30,274	49.66	8	-10,401	-25.57	0.497	39	987	0.013	69
Sandusky	12,686	43.72	33	9,360	38.36	71	-3,326	-26.22	0.348	79	444	0.015	58
Ottawa	11,118	47.80	19	8,201	41.68	48	-2,917	-26.24	0.284	85	209	0.009	82
Wayne	19,786	38.16	50	14,589	35.31	81	-5,197	-26.27	0.349	78	847	0.016	56
Scioto	16,827	47.80	20	12,400	44.09	31	-4,427	-26.31	0.332	81	840	0.023	17
Ross	13,978	44.14	30	10,220	42.87	37	-3,758	-26.89	1.459	1	308	0.010	79
Lucas	132,715	60.21	5	95,157	54.25	3	-37,558	-28.30	0.244	87	1,550	0.007	87
Lake	59,049	48.47	18	41,975	47.74	18	-17,074	-28.91	0.470	54	1,039	0.008	85
Huron	10,568	41.35	40	7,487	35.19	82	-3,081	-29.15	0.673	12	536	0.021	30
Stark	95,337	50.59	16	67,183	41.61	49	-28,154	-29.53	0.480	50	3,322	0.017	51
Lorain	78,970	56.11	7	54,863	49.57	9	-24,107	-30.53	0.397	72	2,301	0.016	55
Athens	18,998	63.23	2	13,150	59.37	2	-5,848	-30.78	0.656	15	541	0.018	49
Monroe	4,243	54.90	8	2,910	50.85	7	-1,333	-31.42	0.802	4	260	0.033	5
Cuyahoga	448,503	66.57	1	303,995	59.72	1	-144,508	-32.22	0.540	30	13,478	0.020	34
Mahoning	83,194	62.60	3	56,373	50.97	6	-26,821	-32.24	0.709	8	1,385	0.010	77
Summit	156,587	56.67	6	103,787	48.26	16	-52,800	-33.72	0.422	65	5,415	0.019	37
Trumbull	66,673	61.65	4	43,614	49.33	11	-23,059	-34.59	0.455	57	2,602	0.023	16
Franklin	285,801	54.35	9	179,640	46.50	24	-106,161	-37.15	0.522	36	7,748	0.015	60
Erie	21,421	53.44	10	11,867	34.31	83	-9,554	-44.60	0.167	88	461	0.011	75

Analysis of the Kerry/Conally vote anomaly
Ohio 2004 — 88 counties

County

Kerry

Conally

Conally surplus

Minor candidates

Presidential non-votes

votes

rank

votes

rank

votes

rank

non-votes

rank

Mercer

5,118

24.50

6,919

41.01

1,801

35.19

0.574

443

0.021

Auglaize

5,903

25.63

7,545

39.01

1,642

27.82

0.491

263

0.011

Shelby

6,535

28.59

8,043

44.56

1,508

23.08

0.508

432

0.019

Clermont

25,887

29.06

30,068

40.82

4,181

16.15

0.267

733

0.008

Darke

7,846

29.82

9,021

41.41

1,175

14.98

0.612

709

0.026

Van Wert

4,095

27.62

4,587

37.42

492

12.01

0.364

698

0.045

Putnam

4,392

23.30

4,846

34.02

454

10.34

0.456

320

0.017

Butler

56,243

33.71

61,559

47.37

5,316

9.45

0.418

2,165

0.013

Warren

26,044

27.58

28,470

38.77

2,426

9.32

0.357

1,090

0.011

Brown

7,140

35.89

7,498

46.69

358

5.01

0.528

389

0.019

Highland

6,194

33.52

6,298

42.20

104

1.68

0.411

383

0.020

Miami

17,606

34.01

17,770

41.58

164

0.93

0.307

344

0.007

Paulding

3,610

36.54

3,592

45.59

-18

-0.50

0.638

206

0.020

Union

6,665

29.45

6,625

36.86

-40

-0.60

0.424

280

0.012

Logan

6,825

31.90

6,773

38.91

-52

-0.76

0.477

317

0.015

Clinton

5,417

29.42

5,309

36.30

-108

-1.99

0.315

260

0.014

Crawford

7,773

35.65

7,557

41.32

-216

-2.78

0.656

488

0.022

Adams

4,281

35.67

4,099

44.56

-182

-4.25

0.550

373

0.030

Allen

16,470

33.44

15,565

36.53

-905

-5.49

0.402

673

0.013

Williams

6,481

34.77

6,106

40.73

-375

-5.79

0.622

352

0.019

Defiance

6,975

37.67

6,501

42.55

-474

-6.80

0.778

337

0.018

Hardin

4,891

36.52

4,554

40.88

-337

-6.89

0.448

179

0.013

Hancock

10,352

29.06

9,595

34.00

-757

-7.31

0.393

307

0.009

Preble

7,274

34.43

6,741

40.15

-533

-7.33

0.563

432

0.020

Morrow

5,775

35.37

5,281

40.03

-494

-8.55

0.484

366

0.022

Champaign

6,968

37.11

6,221

41.86

-747

-10.72

0.479

305

0.016

Greene

30,531

38.51

27,152

43.48

-3,379

-11.07

0.453

1,320

0.016

Gallia

5,366

38.35

4,754

44.11

-612

-11.41

0.364

402

0.028

Madison

6,203

35.65

5,481

40.88

-722

-11.64

0.448

386

0.022

Holmes

2,697

24.04

2,350

29.27

-347

-12.87

0.481

569

0.048

Ashland

8,576

34.33

7,438

35.76

-1,138

-13.27

0.769

760

0.030

Meigs

4,438

41.20

3,805

48.30

-633

-14.26

0.566

266

0.024

Henry

5,111

33.84

4,346

34.28

-765

-14.97

0.609

300

0.019

Pickaway

8,579

37.54

7,269

41.74

-1,310

-15.27

0.490

227

0.010

Fayette

4,334

36.86

3,658

38.74

-676

-15.60

0.400

197

0.016

Delaware

27,048

33.62

22,824

37.40

-4,224

-15.62

0.327

719

0.009

Columbiana

23,429

47.36

19,747

47.54

-3,682

-15.72

0.556

892

0.018

Hamilton

199,679

47.09

166,545

48.95

-33,134

-16.59

0.387

9,038

0.021

Muskingum

16,421

42.25

13,641

42.78

-2,780

-16.93

0.489

700

0.018

Lawrence

12,120

43.74

10,049

48.32

-2,071

-17.09

0.487

708

0.025

Licking

30,053

37.84

24,903

39.95

-5,150

-17.14

0.439

1,119

0.014

Geauga

19,850

39.35

16,334

42.26

-3,516

-17.71

0.410

617

0.012

Richland

24,638

39.84

20,271

41.04

-4,367

-17.72

0.534

1,313

0.021

Marion

11,930

40.78

9,776

39.27

-2,154

-18.06

0.537

398

0.013

Jackson

5,700

39.77

4,637

42.24

-1,063

-18.65

0.342

398

0.027

Fulton

8,224

37.46

6,659

38.80

-1,565

-19.03

0.405

278

0.013

Belmont

17,576

52.75

14,169

51.81

-3,407

-19.38

0.462

773

0.023

Wood

29,401

46.41

23,675

46.36

-5,726

-19.48

0.553

757

0.012

Vinton

2,651

44.72

2,132

48.18

-519

-19.58

0.472

230

0.037

Tuscarawas

18,853

43.94

15,089

42.45

-3,764

-19.96

0.522

854

0.020

Morgan

2,875

42.89

2,300

43.82

-575

-20.00

1.044

198

0.029

Fairfield

24,783

36.51

19,769

37.13

-5,014

-20.23

0.561

884

0.013

Jefferson

19,024

52.30

15,147

49.34

-3,877

-20.38

0.445

804

0.022

Wyandot

3,708

33.58

2,952

32.31

-756

-20.39

0.733

214

0.019

Harrison

3,780

46.61

2,999

43.98

-781

-20.66

0.678

203

0.024

Knox

9,820

36.31

7,786

37.06

-2,034

-20.71

0.558

257

0.009

Noble

2,654

40.58

2,097

42.69

-557

-20.99

0.688

254

0.037

Ashtabula

24,060

52.99

18,985

51.00

-5,075

-21.09

0.674

1,031

0.022

Perry

7,257

47.78

5,645

46.08

-1,612

-22.21

0.500

283

0.018

Washington

12,538

41.49

9,666

41.72

-2,872

-22.91

0.483

278

0.009

Clark

33,535

48.74

25,760

46.91

-7,775

-23.18

0.481

1,317

0.019

Medina

36,272

42.73

27,747

43.69

-8,525

-23.50

0.483

1,138

0.013

Carroll

6,300

44.64

4,811

39.82

-1,489

-23.63

0.822

304

0.021

Pike

5,989

47.62

4,560

46.91

-1,429

-23.86

0.533

397

0.031

Coshocton

7,378

42.64

5,614

39.73

-1,764

-23.91

0.480

333

0.019

Guernsey

7,768

43.54

5,907

41.20

-1,861

-23.96

0.605

339

0.019

Hocking

6,175

46.78

4,692

43.63

-1,483

-24.02

0.667

285

0.021

Seneca

10,957

40.60

8,297

37.22

-2,660

-24.28

0.545

616

0.022

Montgomery

142,997

50.60

108,260

48.40

-34,737

-24.29

0.427

5,062

0.018

Portage

40,675

53.07

30,274

49.66

-10,401

-25.57

0.497

987

0.013

Sandusky

12,686

43.72

9,360

38.36

-3,326

-26.22

0.348

444

0.015

Ottawa

11,118

47.80

8,201

41.68

-2,917

-26.24

0.284

209

0.009

Wayne

19,786

38.16

14,589

35.31

-5,197

-26.27

0.349

847

0.016

Scioto

16,827

47.80

12,400

44.09

-4,427

-26.31

0.332

840

0.023

Ross

13,978

44.14

10,220

42.87

-3,758

-26.89

1.459

308

0.010

Lucas

132,715

60.21

95,157

54.25

-37,558

-28.30

0.244

1,550

0.007

Lake

59,049

48.47

41,975

47.74

-17,074

-28.91

0.470

1,039

0.008

Huron

10,568

41.35

7,487

35.19

-3,081

-29.15

0.673

536

0.021

Stark

95,337

50.59

67,183

41.61

-28,154

-29.53

0.480

3,322

0.017

Lorain

78,970

56.11

54,863

49.57

-24,107

-30.53

0.397

2,301

0.016

Athens

18,998

63.23

13,150

59.37

-5,848

-30.78

0.656

541

0.018

Monroe

4,243

54.90

2,910

50.85

-1,333

-31.42

0.802

260

0.033

Cuyahoga

448,503

66.57

303,995

59.72

-144,508

-32.22

0.540

13,478

0.020

Mahoning

83,194

62.60

56,373

50.97

-26,821

-32.24

0.709

1,385

0.010

Summit

156,587

56.67

103,787

48.26

-52,800

-33.72

0.422

5,415

0.019

Trumbull

66,673

61.65

43,614

49.33

-23,059

-34.59

0.455

2,602

0.023

Franklin

285,801

54.35

179,640

46.50

-106,161

-37.15

0.522

7,748

0.015

Erie

21,421

53.44

11,867

34.31

-9,554

-44.60

0.167

461

0.011

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Ohio 2004 vote analysis:background data forWhat Went Wrong in OhioThe Conyers Report on the 2004 Presidential Election

Ohio 2004 vote analysis:
background data for
What Went Wrong in Ohio
The Conyers Report on the 2004 Presidential Election